KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2030 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2030 70%En tête parmi 4 options
Before Jan 1, 2030 70%Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
562,5 $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
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Before Jan 1, 2030Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
13 juil. 26, 17:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2030
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsDoes China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:SemaforABCBloombergNBCThe Washington PostAssociated PressThe Wall Street JournalFox NewsReutersThe InformationPoliticoAxiosMSNBCCNNthe New York TimesCBS
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.