Probabilité implicite actuelle
#10 96%-0.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
91 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
627,7 €
Liquidité
36,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
95.9% / 96.5%
Spread
0.6%
Spread serréVariation 7j
-2.5%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
2 avr. 26, 21:5731 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
#1096%
Comparer les plateformes· #10
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 96% | — | 627,7 € | 36,5 k € | il y a 17 minutes | |
 Kalshi82% de correspondance · vérifié | Élevée | 83% | — | 278,8 € | 33,6 k € | il y a 17 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
2.0%5mo
83%
-2.0%17%
80 • Haute qualitéSpread modéréLiquidité élevée
Volume total98,6 k €
Volume 24h278,8 €
KALSHIRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$7143 juil.24j de données26 juil.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.