Probabilité implicite actuelle
#5 100%+61.3ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
28,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
2
Variation 7j
-7.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
2 avr. 26, 21:57 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketA Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? ?
- Polymarket cote #5 à 100% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.
