Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2029 91.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 mars 25, 16:28 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Will AI outperform the best human on the RE-bench benchmark?
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.15114
- [image]Resolution criteria
- This resolution will use AI Digest as its source.
- Score must be > 1.27
- Which AI systems count?
