Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 66%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète24 oct. 23, 14:30 UTC31 déc. 28, 14:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Manifold MarketsWill Grok 5 beat the best human team at League of Legends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.
- The engine must use end-to-end neural networks including LLMs.
- Explicit monte-carlo tree search or equivalent methods, which is standard in current chess algorithms, can not be used.
- This market resolves to YES if the NN score above 2,700 in classic elo rating.
- (Same as original market)
- https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a?r=eWs
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 66% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.