Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.2%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
12 oct. 25, 18:55 UTC30 juin 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.
- Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur.
- If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
Marchés ouverts
SportsPOLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 M €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt10.6%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.6%
- San Francisco8%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 114,8 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+17.0pt62.8%
- Boston-17.0pt37.3%
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58.2% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.