Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 82.4%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
1 août 26, 16:23 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsAny study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.
- Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem.
- Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI.
- Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.
- If subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.
- What if AGI happens first?
Marchés ouverts
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
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KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 82.4% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.