Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.1%
Prévisionnistes
45
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 38 minutes
26 sept. 23, 13:10 UTC2 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by September 30?
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KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.
- To make the judgement on whether it's made by an AI I'll consider whether the technology of the time is capable of the task and obviously if the description of the video says it's made entirely by AI.
- As well as other evidence such as "behind-the-scenes" journalism, videos, etc
- The video must be made entirely based on a single prompt (not cut together or edited by a human).
- Therefore, common techniques used today such as masking an AI over an existing video would not qualify.
- The sound of the video may be human made but if it is, it must not be an integral part of its popularity (such as a music video)
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2029.
- Comment In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.