Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PolitiqueOne-OffSanté et médecineMétéoGéopolitiqueRussie / UkraineSportÉchecsEuropeIA1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 76.3%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 23, 16:24 UTC2 janv. 28, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will these LLM + search companies still be in business in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "LLM-generated text is not testimony" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these disasters will strike the world next?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
