Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.9%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète3 mars 24, 05:59 UTC1 janv. 31, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, artificial intelligence (AI) systems have demonstrated the capability to predict major natural disasters (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and floods) with at least one week's notice.
- For the resolution to be "Yes," these predictions must be consistently accurate, with no unforeseen major natural disasters occurring in the years 2028, 2029, and 2030.
- A "major" natural disaster is defined as one resulting in 1,000 or more deaths or causing significant disruption, such as the evacuation of over 100,000 people, substantial destruction of property, or severe economic impacts.
