Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePandemic 61.1%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
96
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 51 minutes
En retard6 juil. 23, 21:54 UTC1 janv. 50, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)
Manifold MarketsWhat will the next world-wide crisis be?
Manifold MarketsRègles
We hope that these will never strike, but life has shown us time and time again that tragedy is inexorable.
- When one comes, which of these will it be?
- In all cases, >10 million people displaced or 100,000 dead, within a year.
- Must also start counting after this question and either be "new" or 10-fold worse than usual; for example, annual fluctuations (even significant) in the flu must be 10x+ worse than normal range.
- This question's close date is fluid; it may be extended indefinitely until criteria are met.
- This list is exclusive and ignores other disasters that would qualify (e.g. earthquakes, meteors, war, and so forth), but is otherwise as broad and flexible within the listed categories as I can imagine: