US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
1.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle East1mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
September 20 95%+2.5ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
≤74 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
150 k €
Liquidité
123,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
17 sept. 26, 15:54 UTC31 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
