Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens) 57%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète18 nov. 25, 14:28 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsIs Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
I'll search for current information on these potential end-times signals to provide accurate context for traders.#### Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any of the following occurs by the end of 2029:
- Climate Displacement: An estimated 30 million people are displaced annually due to climate-related disasters, but the 500 million threshold requires verification through EITHER UN UNHCR reports or World Bank climate migration assessments.
- Resolution via UNHCR Displacement Data or World Bank Climate Migration Reports.
- US Default: The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the "X-date" will "most likely occur between August 15 and October 3" if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
- Resolution via US Treasury Department official announcement of default or missed payment.
