Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 5 juin 2026, 07:26 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelleGradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze 22.8%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
61
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 51 jours
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 17:2811 avr. 80, 17:17
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Engineered pandemic13%
Marchés Associés
Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?
79,5 €Oui: 57%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhere will I live in October 2026?
43,9 €Berkeley, CA: 15.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
26 €Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
755,2 €Oui: 4%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
26,3 €Oui: 55%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
7 k €SpaceX: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
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Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsRègles
If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.
- AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.