Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleEngineered pandemic 21.1%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
67
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+10.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 17:28 UTC11 avr. 80, 17:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If a misaligned ASI kills everyone, how will it kill the last 100k people?
Manifold MarketsIn the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Pacific Island countries will sign 'climate refuge pacts' with Australia before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the next world-wide crisis be?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A. AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.
