Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%En tête parmi 6 options
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète6 juin 24, 08:26 UTC1 janv. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will war in Ukraine deescalate to <100 people killed in a year?
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Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Criteria for Resolution:
- Intentional Killing: The deaths must be intentional, to the best of our judgment.
- Incidental or unintended consequences of AI actions, such as side effects from a drug developed by AI, do not qualify.
- Event Definition:
- - The event may have long-lasting effects, but it must originate from a more or less instantaneous and well-defined initial action by the AI.
- - The event can span a longer timeframe if the initial AI action directly leads to the deaths over time (e.g., an AI-initiated blackmailing campaign resulting in deaths occurring up to a year after the initial action).
