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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Géopolitique
  3. Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

0.3% (24h)One-OffGéopolitiqueRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31
December 31 33%-2.0%
En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche

89 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

8,8 k €

Liquidité

162,3 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

2.8% / 3.0%

Spread

7.1%

Spread modéré
Variation 7j

+0.7%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes

16 mai 26, 1:3131 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
May 31
May 31
0%

Résultat choisi

December 3133%

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

Marchés Associés

US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

48,8 k €
December 31,: 5%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

48,7 k €
Oui: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

16,8 k €
December 31: 46%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
Oui: 19%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

65 €
Oui: 13.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,638.04+2.55%EthereumETH$1,650.93+2.11%SolanaSOL$65.13+1.84%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+2.02%XRPXRP$1.12+0.53%BNBBNB$595.11+1.92%

Actualités Associées

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsUkraine NATO Bid Doubt Surges: Polymarket Bets Narrow to NoBlockchain.NewsRussia Sanctions British Teen Over Crypto Sanctions ReportBlockchain.NewsRussia targets British 17-year-old for alleging digital assets were skirting sanctionsCointelegraphRussia targets 17-year-old Browder over A7A5 crypto findingsCrypto News

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.