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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Géopolitique
  3. US x Russia military clash by...?
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

0.8% (24h)One-OffGéopolitiqueRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31,
December 31, 5%-0.8%
En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche

89 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

48,8 k €

Liquidité

50,6 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

5.0% / 5.2%

Spread

4.0%

Spread modéré
Variation 7j

-0.9%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes

28 mai 25, 22:1631 déc. 26, 12:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
December 31
December 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%

Résultat choisi

December 31,5%

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Marchés Associés

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

48,2 k €
Oui: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

16,8 k €
December 31: 46%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

14,8 k €
Oui: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
Oui: 19%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

65 €
Oui: 13.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,664.74+2.35%EthereumETH$1,650.73+1.66%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.67%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.78%XRPXRP$1.12+0.33%BNBBNB$595.52+1.68%

Actualités Associées

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsUkraine NATO Bid Doubt Surges: Polymarket Bets Narrow to NoBlockchain.NewsRussia Sanctions British Teen Over Crypto Sanctions ReportBlockchain.NewsRussia targets British 17-year-old for alleging digital assets were skirting sanctionsCointelegraphRussia targets 17-year-old Browder over A7A5 crypto findingsCrypto News

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.