China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
GéopolitiqueOne-OffChine1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.4%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète23 nov. 25, 07:58 UTC15 déc. 26, 07:54 UTC
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Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES only if:
- • Chinese and Japanese military or paramilitary forces (PLA, JMSDF/JGSDF/JASDF, China Coast Guard, Japan Coast Guard) engage in direct armed or physical confrontation, and
- • At least one person from one side is physically injured or killed by the actions of the other side.
- Cross-party requirement:
- • Injuries or deaths must be caused by the opposing side.