PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 19%-8.5ptEn tête parmi 10 options
Qualite du marche
≤74 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
45,7 k €
Liquidité
80,7 k €
Liquidité élevéeSpread
0.2 pt
Spread serréComments
1,146
Variation 7j
-3.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
25 juin 26, 23:231 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”).
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify.
- A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
- Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).