PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 93.1%
Qualité du marché
77 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,9 k €
Liquidité
52,1 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
6.0% / 7.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
12
Variation 7j
-1.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
19 janv. 26, 20:34 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.