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  • Accueil
  • MarchésMarchés de Prédiction
  • Actualités
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Géopolitique
  3. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

1.3% (24h)One-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle East18j
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
September 30
September 30 34%+5.0%
En tête parmi 7 options
Qualite du marche

89 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

151,7 k €

Liquidité

165 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

13.0% / 13.8%

Spread

6.2%

Spread modéré
Variation 7j

+6.5%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes

16 mars 26, 18:4430 juin 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
March 31
March 31
0%
April 30
April 30
0%

Résultat choisi

September 3034%

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

Marchés Associés

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

3,8 M €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

713,9 k €
Oui: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

612,4 k €
December 31: 79%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4,6 k €
Oui: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1,9 k €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

750,5 €
Before July: 8%KalshiKALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,701.00+1.92%EthereumETH$1,652.96+1.39%SolanaSOL$65.13+0.87%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.19%XRPXRP$1.12-0.28%BNBBNB$595.50+1.31%

Actualités Associées

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.NewsUS Sanctions Iran’s Nobitex Crypto Exchange Over Sanctions EvasionBlockchain.News

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.