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Données au 24 oct. 2026, 12:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 18%
December 31 18%Qualité du marché
23 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
495,9 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
2
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This event predicts whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed to shipping by the dates covered by the event's markets.
- A market will resolve to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as published by IMF PortWatch, is equal to or less than 10 at any point on or before the market's deadline.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.
- A market resolves 'Yes' immediately and irrevocably once qualifying data is published, even if traffic later recovers.
- Data revisions published before the market's deadline are considered; revisions published after it are disregarded.
- If no qualifying data has been published within 14 calendar days after the deadline, resolution will use the data available through that point.