Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffPolitique commercialeGéopolitique2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57.1%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète20 août 26, 02:12 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.