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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPolitiqueUS Politics6mo
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Before 2027
Before 2027 10%
En tête parmi 5 options
Qualite du marche

44 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

47,3 €

Liquidité

8,4 k €

Liquidité moyenne
Achat / Vente

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes

11 déc. 25, 22:001 janv. 27, 4:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Résultat choisi

Before 202710%

Règles

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Actifs Sensibles au Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,613.02+2.07%EthereumETH$1,648.07+1.25%SolanaSOL$64.97+1.33%

Marchés Associés

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Oui: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
Oui: 4%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

5,9 €
$0 / No Acquisition: 81%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

0,4 €
Oui: 20%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

0 €
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+1.52%XRPXRP$1.11+0.27%BNBBNB$594.47+1.52%CardanoADA$0.1657+3.31%HyperliquidHYPE$55.59+0.31%AvalancheAVAX$6.57+0.82%

Actualités Associées

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto NewsCongress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto NewsCongress wants to ban lawmakers from crypto prediction marketsCrypto News

Règles

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.