PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 72.3%-0.5pt
Qualité du marché
82 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
28,6 k €
Liquidité
49,2 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
27.0% / 28.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-5.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
24 juil. 26, 21:54 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsUS x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.