Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDecember 31 10.7%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-2.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète16 mai 26, 16:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? ?
- Manifold Markets cote December 31 à 11% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Où Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.