Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 23 juil. 2026, 16:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelleMay 31 0%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour avant-hier
Obsolète16 mai 26, 16:1431 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
0%
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
October 3114%
Comparer les plateformes· December 31
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global88% de correspondance · vérifié | Élevée | 36% | — | 37,4 k € | 208,8 k € | il y a 18 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Polymarket88% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 25% | — | 4,7 k € | 124,5 k € | il y a 18 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 21% | — | — | — | avant-hier |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5mo
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 résultats de plus
73 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total797,3 k €
Volume 24h4,7 k €
POLYMARKETÉgalement disponible sur Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
3.5%5mo
-0.5%36%
-3.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 résultats de plus
89 • Haute qualitéSpread modéréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total5 M €
Volume 24h37,4 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka-3 j
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka-3 j$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3-21 j
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3-21 j$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedsta-26 j
POLYMARKETNonedsta-26 jTendance du volume
$6018 juil.4j de données23 juil.
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.