Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.5%
Prévisionnistes
82
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
14 déc. 25, 17:18 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria