Will Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientRussie / Ukraine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.6%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète7 mars 26, 22:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026?
FutuurWill America send troops to Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill Australia deploy troops to Venezuela in support of US forces before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsSyrian troops enter Yemen by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Confirmed publicly and credibly, whether by Russia or another government
- Official Russian regulars ("under the flag of Russia"), not just troops of a not-Russian-state-official paramilitary group who happen to be Russian
- Intentionally deployed into Iranian territory, not skirmishing in and out from adjacent areas
- Combat roles (infantry, tanks, artillery, frontline drone teams, etc.), whether or not they are actually used in combat
- Humans that would be used in ground combat; naval forces in Iranian waters are not "troops in Iran" for the purposes of this market, nor are military aircraft stationed in Iran with their crews if they lack supporting Russian guard deployments
- May be special forces or similar that otherwise use irregular tactics while still being official troops; general purpose infantry don't exclusively qualify.