Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.5%
Prévisionnistes
227
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 mars 26, 04:02 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill America send troops to Iran?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026?
FutuurIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketIf Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
- Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting.
- If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
- I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.