Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81%
Prévisionnistes
109
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
13 janv. 26, 16:44 UTC31 déc. 26, 16:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send troops to help Iran within the next 24 months?
Manifold MarketsIf a Republican is elected POTUS in 2024, will the US send troops into Mexico before EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
PolymarketSaudi troops enter Sanaa by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- ‼️This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran.
- Trump has stated that military intervention "doesn't mean boots on the ground," suggesting that airstrikes, cyber operations, or other non-ground-based military actions would not satisfy the resolution criteria.
- The market resolves NO if no U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran by December 31, 2026‼️.
- Nationwide protests began on December 28, 2025, when merchants at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops over the Iranian rial's plummeting value, and demonstrations quickly spread nationwide with grievances evolving from economic concerns to broader opposition against Iran's clerical establishment.
- Violence in the country has led to dozens of deaths and arrests.
