Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
12.5 pts (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
US 32.7%+12.5ptEn tête parmi 8 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
71 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
4,9 k €
Liquidité
40,8 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+17.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
26 août 26, 22:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.