Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Matières premièresOne-OffGéopolitiqueMoyen-OrientPolitique commerciale2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
21 avr. 26, 13:38 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRègles
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
- The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
- Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.
