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Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

CommoditiesOne-OffGéopolitique Middle East Trade Policy3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 87.1%

Prévisionnistes

26

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 11 heures

Obsolète

21 avr. 26, 13:38 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

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Règles

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.

Marchés ouverts

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?

Above $90.99+14.0pt99%
Above $90.49+9.0pt99%
Above $83.4999%

+27 résultats de plus

Volume total: 414,5 k €
Volume 24h: 265,7 k €

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $90+35.5pt100%
↑ $85+5.7pt100%
↓ $90100%

+22 résultats de plus

Florida gas prices tomorrow

Above 3.910099%
Above 3.895099%
Above 3.890099%

+34 résultats de plus

Volume total: 126,9 k €
Volume 24h: 126,9 k €

Natural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Above $2.85097%
Above $2.85594%
Above $2.86591%

+67 résultats de plus

Volume total: 113,8 k €
Volume 24h: 113,1 k €

US gas prices tomorrow

Above 4.150099%
Above 4.145099%
Above 4.135099%

+22 résultats de plus

Volume total: 112,4 k €
Volume 24h: 110,5 k €

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?

Above $85.4999%
Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
Above $84.9999%

+27 résultats de plus

Volume total: 113,6 k €
Volume 24h

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?: Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
Comment Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This description was generated by AI.

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