Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 61%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 25, 01:52 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 369,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 368 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Volume total
- 89,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 79,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Volume total
- 85,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 64,4 k €
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI market share this week
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition