Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 62.9%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 23, 20:00 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.
- This market predicts whether this will still hold true by the end of 2026.
- Even if a clear explanation of the problem and of an algorithm to solve it is provided, today's LLMs haven't been shown to be able to answer correctly in a reliable way.
- While arguably most humans would succeed, if adequately instructed.
- In other words, this market means to compare the reasoning abilities of an average human with the top LLMs, at the end of 2026, in the fairest way I could think of.
- This market is about tasks meant to test reasoning abilities, that can be solved using only pen and paper, which can be understood and learned in less than 15 minutes, that you'd expect motivated kids to be able to solve.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62.9% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.