Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.1%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète8 mars 24, 04:51 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 369,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 368 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Volume total
- 89,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 79,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Volume total
- 85,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 64,4 k €
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI market share this week
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 70.1% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. sera-t-il résolu ?
- 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market made in response to this article.