Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
IAOne-Off17aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 87.2%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 déc. 22, 21:09 UTC1 janv. 44, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.
- It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market.
- The full prediction is:
- When AGI (artificial intelligence) comes, large language models like GPT-4 may be seen in hindsight as part of the eventual solution, but only as part of the solution. “Scaling” alone—building bigger and models until they absorb the entire internet — will prove useful, but only to a point.
- Trustworthy, general artificial intelligence, aligned with human values, will come, when it does, from systems that are more structured, with more built-in knowledge, and will incorporate at least some degree of explicit tools for reasoning and planning, as well as explicit it knowledge, that are lacking in systems like GPT.
- Within a decade, maybe much less, the focus of AI will move from a pure focus on scaling large language models to a focus on integrating them with a wide range of other techniques.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2044.
- Comment Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.