Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 05:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.7%
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139
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 24, 18:57 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
Manifold MarketsCovid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths
Manifold MarketsWill I play GTA6 on my PC within two weeks from its launch?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Miles Brundage, former head of policy research at OpenAI, and Gary Marcus, NYU neuroscientist, have made a public bet about AI progress (details on Gary Marcus's Substack) that we will not see AGI by the end of 2027.
- They're operationalizing that as 8 out of the following 10 things being feasible in principle by AI:
- Understand everything about a new movie that a human does, just by watching it.
- Same but for novels.
- Write hallucination-free biographies/obituaries of New York Times quality.
- Master almost any new video game as fast as a human can.
