Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%En tête parmi 14 options
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 12:19 UTC31 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
