Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.1%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 12:19 UTC31 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage ?
- Manifold Markets cote Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage sera-t-il résolu ?
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2028.
- Comment Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.