Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 29.8%-1.1ptEn tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+24.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
3 oct. 26, 18:53 UTC9 oct. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
KalshiWill the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?
Manifold Markets🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsTrump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market.
- It will follow their resolution.
- To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).
- Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).
- "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).
- The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%—since there are some options covered by "Other").
