Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAcquired by Paramount 90.3%+54.6ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+54.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
17 déc. 25, 13:40 UTC30 juin 27, 13:27 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
2027 Q2 means the end of the second quarter of 2027, aka approx 18 months from today.
- the named outcome means there is a purchase agreement in place but it is currently waiting for FCC or anti-trust lawsuits to go through.
- I asked ChatGPT what is the theoretical timeline once shareholders are onboard and he gives me:
- Optimistic (everything goes smoothly):
- ~9–12 months
- Base case (Second Request + remedies):
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Acquired by Paramount à 90% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : 2027 Q2 means the end of the second quarter of 2027, aka approx 18 months from today.