Prévision communautaire actuelle
September 2026 1.395C or more 40.5%-2.2ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+10.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
28 août 26, 12:23 UTC11 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsGlobal Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsConsecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Oklahoma City above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Las Vegas above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiWill the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Data is currently at csv file or
- (or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data see data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt )
- January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period.
- If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C.
- Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
- If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Marchés ouverts
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- 153,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 409,9 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Global Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) ?
- Manifold Markets cote September 2026 1.395C or more à 41% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Global Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Global Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) doit être résolu le 11 octobre 2026.
- Comment Global Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Data is currently at csv file or