Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 24, 19:51 UTC30 nov. 48, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Global Average Temperature Oct 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
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ForecastExRègles
The increase in temperature will be calculated:
- a) taking NOAA-STAR satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere (see https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/) OR the most similar such data if this dataset is discontinued,
- b) calculating the slope and intercept of a least-squares affine fit of this data versus time (from November 1978 to November 2048),
- c) using that fit to calculate the change in temperature between 1978 and 2048.
- For reference, from Nov 1978 - Mar 2024, the anomaly has been 0.135 K/decade.
- The time elapsed has been 45.33 years.
