Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (97.2%)
Résolu: 10 oct. 2026, 19:49
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 oct. 2026, 11:31 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Tendances
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWill an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWill BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028?
KalshiInternational treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially releases a product, service, or feature that is classified as a fully autonomous AI agent before July 1, 2027.
- For the purposes of this market, an autonomous AI agent is defined as an AI system capable of executing multi-step tasks, navigating web browsers, or interacting with software interfaces to achieve user-defined goals with a high degree of independence (i.e., without requiring continuous human-in-the-loop prompts for every step).
- Note on existing products: OpenAI has already released several products with autonomous agentic capabilities, including:
- Operator (released January 2025)
- ChatGPT Agent (released July 2025)
