Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète20 août 26, 12:44 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWill BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI Agent end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially releases a product, service, or feature that is classified as a fully autonomous AI agent before July 1, 2027.
- For the purposes of this market, an autonomous AI agent is defined as an AI system capable of executing multi-step tasks, navigating web browsers, or interacting with software interfaces to achieve user-defined goals with a high degree of independence (i.e., without requiring continuous human-in-the-loop prompts for every step).
- Note on existing products: OpenAI has already released several products with autonomous agentic capabilities, including:
- Operator (released January 2025)
- ChatGPT Agent (released July 2025)
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria