Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
IAOne-Off13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAutonomous AI math researcher 93.5%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 25, 19:41 UTC1 janv. 40, 20:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
Manifold MarketsWill a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To satisfy Event 2, the AI must be capable of autonomously writing readable, well-explained papers.
