Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
IAOne-Off13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAutonomous AI math researcher 89.6%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 25, 19:41 UTC1 janv. 40, 20:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Autonomous AI math researcher à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves to the event which happens first: