KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before 2040 64%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
17,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
3.8 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
14 août 25, 20:45 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
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- $76,000 or above99%
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+77 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
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- $72,500 or above99%
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+47 résultats de plus
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- No96%
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- Miami+37.0pt99%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? ?
- Kalshi cote Before 2040 à 64% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.