KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before 2040 64%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
50 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
44,5 €
Liquidité
17,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
4.6 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
14 août 25, 20:45 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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KalshiRègles
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
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- $74,750 or above99%
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- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 M €
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- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
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- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
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- New York City+68.0pt99%
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- Volume total
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- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? ?
- Kalshi cote Before 2040 à 64% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.