Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 11:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
2028 25.1%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète9 janv. 26, 08:29 UTC1 janv. 01, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be able to reliably tie a men's necktie by the year 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES when a humanoid robot (bipedal, anthropomorphic form factor) successfully completes all of the following in a single, continuous attempt:
- Unboxes a previously unreleased Lego set with 5,000+ pieces
- Reads and interprets the instruction manual as provided to human builders
- Assembles the entire model according to the manual without human intervention
- Resolution will be determined by video evidence published by the robot manufacturer or verified by independent third parties.
