Prévision communautaire actuelle
Later 37%+3.1ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Later 37%+3.1ptPrévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète9 janv. 24, 22:50 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
I will resolve this whenever a credible video is posted of an autonomous robot system assembling, from printed instructions, a Lego set that it has not specifically been trained to assemble.
- I will resolve to 'Later' if no such video has been posted by EOY 2027.
- This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets.
- Applying stickers is not required.