Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.9%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 nov. 24, 15:44 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2030 for the market to resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 319,9 k €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.3%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.2%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.3%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volume total
- 217,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 215,2 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.