Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.3%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète1 nov. 24, 15:39 UTC1 janv. 40, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhich arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2040 for the market to resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.