Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 80.8%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète10 nov. 24, 22:48 UTC1 janv. 75, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2075 for the market to resolve YES.
