Prévision communautaire actuelle
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
23 mars 25, 14:56 UTC1 janv. 01, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRègles
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2025-2034 à 31% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2101.
- Comment In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.